Thursday, March 24, 2022

Baseball's Most Exciting Games, No. 16: The Sacrifice Fly of Destiny

2007 National League Wildcard Tiebreaker: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

October 1, 2007, Coors Field, Denver, Colorado

This gif shows Matt Holliday not touching the plate 
and Michael Barrett not tagging Holliday.
Matt Holliday never touched the plate, of course. Might as well get that out of the way right now. As a true neutral fan, one who generally doesn't care about the Colorado Rockies or the San Diego Padres, I can say with confidence that Matt Holliday never actually touched home plate in the 13th inning that night. If umpire Tim McClelland had made the correct call, he would have made no call until a few seconds after the slide, when Padres catcher Michael Barrett finally wandered over and tagged a dazed Holliday. The winning run wouldn't have counted, and the game would have continued for at least one more batter, and possibly forever.

Who knows why McClelland missed the call. Maybe he thought Holliday had slipped his hand across the corner of the plate. Maybe he had an extra-long blink after being behind the plate for nearly five hours. Or perhaps McClelland's hesitant "safe" call was a subconscious acknowledgment that this seemed to be a Rockies team of destiny. 

On September 15, the Rockies lost 10-2 to the Marlins. At the end of that day, they were in 4th place in  the division and 4.5 games back in the wild card standings, with only 14 games to play. It isn't unreasonable to make up 4.5 games standings in 14 games, but the Rockies had to catch four teams to make the playoffs. And the only way to leapfrog four teams in that short of a time frame is to win all the rest of your games.

Colorado didn't quite do that, but their 13-1 record to close out the season was enough to put them at the doorstep of the postseason, and when the Padres lost their season-ending game, the two NL West rivals were forced into a Game 163 to decide the Wild Card winner. 

It was easy to see which team was on 13-1 run at the start of the game, as the Rockies jumped out to a 3-0 lead after two innings. Then Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez laughed at that lead and erased it with one swing, a third-inning grand slam to put the Padres up 4-3. The Padres later turned that into a 5-3 lead.

But the Rockies weren't done. They came back with single runs in the 3rd, 5th, and 6th innings to retake the lead. They carried that lead into the 8th, and they were four outs from winning when Brian Giles hit a lazy fly ball to left. But Holliday ran in when he should have ran over, and the ball got behind him, and the game was suddenly tied again.

Holliday surely wanted to atone for his defensive mistake, but he struck out with a runner on in the 8th and again with nobody on in the 11th. Meanwhile, Rockies reliever Matt Herges - their 8th pitcher of the game - kept getting into and then out of trouble, letting runners reach base in each of the 10th, 11th, and 12th innings, but not letting any of the runners cross the plate.

Three innings was enough for Herges, and the Rockies turned to Jorge Julio, who showed everybody why he was in eighth place in Colorado's bullpen hierarchy by quickly giving up a walk and a home run in the top of the 13th. Scott Hairston's home run seemed like it would be back-breaking for the Rockies. Not only were the Padres up by 2, but they had managed to navigate through the first 12 innings without using their ace closer, Trevor Hoffman. And as the bottom of the 13th started, the future hall-of-famer came jogging out of the bullpen. 

Trailing by two to start the bottom of the 13th, the Rockies only had a 10% win expectancy. With Hoffman on the mound, that number was likely much lower. But they had faced a difficult climb before - if they could win 13 out of 14 games to close the season, surely they could score twice in an inning, right?

And so Kazuo Matsui hit a double. Troy Tulowitzki did the same. Then it was Holliday's turn, his third chance to redeem himself. Third time was the charm, I guess. He hit one high off the right-field wall, not quite a home run, but good enough for a game-tying triple

After an intentional walk, it was time for Jamey Carroll. The fly ball wasn't hit very far, but it made Brian Giles reach up slightly to catch it, which might have stunted his momentum, causing his throw to have more arc on it than he probably wanted, giving Holliday just enough time to slide into Barrett's foot and slam his face into the turf. He never touched the plate, but the run counted anyway, and the Rockies were off to the postseason. 

The Rockies continued their hot streak, sweeping the both the Phillies and Diamondbacks to extend their season-ending record to 21-1. Then they were promptly steamrolled by the Red Sox in the World Series. 

I guess not all fairy tales have happy endings.

2007 National League Wild Card Tiebreaker
Overall Rank: 16
Top 10 Swing: 226
Top play: Matt Holliday's 13th inning triple (WPA of 47% for Colorado)
Loser's largest WE: 93
T13, no out, runner on first, San Diego up 8-6
Average LI: 1.73
Highest leverage moment: 4.61 (tied 6-6, T11, runners on 1st and 2nd, 1 out, Khalil Greene up)

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